Quote:
Originally Posted by benwaggoner
A 25-30% improvement is really small potatoes for a new codec generation. Historically, we've seen broad multiple-industry adaptions of new codecs when they have a potential ~100% more compression than the prior standard technology.
MPEG-2 to H.264 offered that kind of improvement, as did H.264 to HEVC, and HEVC to VVC. Codecs that offered ~20-30% improvements, like MPEG-4 Part 2, VC-1, VP3-9, and so far AV1 haven't ever gotten much momentum outside of their primary sponsor companies and their specific ecosystems.
An AV2 30% better than AV1 would still be somewhat short of VVC. It's hard to see it becoming the "default" HW decoder unless VVC's licensing goes horribly pear-shaped.
Even with HEVC's licensing challenges, it has been ubiquitous in pretty much every video-capable SoC, GPU, CPU, etcetera for years now. It's pretty dominant for paid premium content, with user-generated and non-commercial content the main place VP9 and AV1 are used. Big markets, but still a relatively moderate slice of the overall video market pie.
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Ok, but for AV2 to have 30-50% better compression over AV1, AOM will have to invent new breakthrough technology (and different from the VVC patented new technology).So far we can read that AOM has started to look at promising machine learning and neural networks (MPEG has also started this research), but a current "problematic" with AI is that certainly encoding will be slower but especially decoding will be very slower? Does the complexity budget will explode?
So with 30-50% improvement over AV1, I think AV2 certainly needs more years of development and won't be ready in the near future?