DVD's Future or what's next.

[cjschaff]

Question.
I am in charge of our church's library. It has a large supply of VCR tapes of children's and educational programs.

My budget has just been dramatically increased to replace the tapes. BUT, I have been told BEFORE I rush out and upgrade all of the VCR tapes to DVD, make sure just what the prospect of the life of the DVD is.

Other words. What is on the horizon for the copyrighted 'video' world? Will DVD still be the staple 10 years from now? Will BD take over?(doubt it). Is there a new technology just about to break through, and I should hold off for a few more years?

Thank you very much.

I understand that the answer is basically going to be speculations, but any information helps.
Craig

[mike20021969]

I imagine DVD (invented 1995) will still be around in 15~20+ years time.
VHS (1976) recorder/players and tapes are still available (to buy) today.
The audio CD introduced in 1982 is still very popular format almost 30 years later.

Of course, new formats will be launched in the near future.

[smok3]

my speculation is that anything to hold on will vanish (it will be a connected world, so your library may take a "video on demand" type of service in the "near" future). In any case it will be file-based workflow.

So what you might do is:
a. - invest into high quality analog capture card, capture, backup the captures (+ metadata searchable database of some sort)
b. - make DVD versions out of a.
c. - think about online library, people visiting the church may get a free weekly url then.

(additionally: store copies of a. into geographically remote locations, maybe some other church, maybe use some cloud base services for dvd or web sized backups)

p.s. The basic problem with digital storage of any kind is that it wont get old nicely (like maybe VHS tapes), but it will just go from 1 to 0 at some point in time.

[Ghitulescu]

DVD was the last compatible medium for VHS (BD has too the possibility to accomodate DVD video data, however the technique is way too advanced and anyone will notice the quality drop).

[CWR03]

Regardless of whether or not there will be a new format in the near future or whether or not DVDs will become completely obsolete soon, you'll probably find that your current VHS collection will have very limited availability on Blu-Ray. There are still many tens of thousands of mainstream movies that haven't been or won't in the near future be released on Blu-Ray.

[Ghitulescu]

The future is blue-ray.

The near future is blue.

The future is cable (no storage at the client side, everything on demand).

[laserfan]

Question...BEFORE I rush out and upgrade all of the VCR tapes to DVD, make sure just what the prospect of the life of the DVD is...I should hold off for a few more years?
Craig, what is the likelihood that in "a few more years" that these Children's and Educational programs would appear in a new format? That they would even appear on Blu-ray? Most-if-not-all of your programs are likely to exist only on standard definition video, and therefore aren't even candidates for a newer or high def format.

If the programs do mostly exist today on DVD, and assuming you have good reason to replace the tapes i.e. they are wearing-out along with the tape playback gear, then you should find/buy as many of these programs on DVD as you can, as DVD is a format that will be playable by all disc players for many, many years to come.

[Ghitulescu]

Craig, what is the likelihood that in "a few more years" that these Children's and Educational programs would appear in a new format?

The educational material for churches will appear on every support that will ever exist.

And as it happened with VHS more than 10 years ago, it will happen with DVD in the near future (it already started), namely: 10 years or more ago the craze of digitizing VHS came to a peak, people feared that their precious tapes will never be rereleased as DVD. Today there are movies on DVD, not only those that were feared not to appear, but also ones that have never been released on VHS (that is, even rarer). Why? Simply, that was an additional $ to be gained before the DVD become the new king. Now the BD is the king, and they squeeze now all the $ they can squeeze from DVD sales. Remember, it was the US the country that prolonged the ancillary rights to 95 years, so the companies would even more profit from the video support change.

[mike20021969]

The future is cable (no storage at the client side, everything on demand).

I doubt it.

1) Who's going to want to stream a movie each time you want to watch it, and would you have to pay each time?
2) I'd want something for my money (e.g. a disc).
3) What about watching it on a portable player (such as an Archos or iPod/iPad type device)?

[mpucoder]

I guess outside the US people are not familiar with Netflix. With Netflix you pay a monthly fee (around 8 USD) and can watch as much as you want, no pay-per-view. And all the major networks have free streaming programs. Some are not complete episodes, and most contain advertising that can not be skipped, but they are free. And in the amateur arena there is YouTube, also free. You and I may oppose it as we want to own a copy for later viewing, but this is the trend.
Ipod and Ipad support streaming video, as do gaming systems such as PS3, Xbox, and Wii. My blu-ray player can stream movies, as can the new class of TVs (IPTV). Even my cell phone can view streaming video.

[Ghitulescu]

I doubt it.

I think you wanted to say I don't like it.
Like it or not, this is the goal of the media content providers. Be it pay-per-view or pauschal (netflix), the trend is not to allow any storage at the client side (or only temporary storage, sort of time shift, which would also be limited in time, like no more than 90min, which temporary storage must be encrypted and not accessible). Copying on portable device might be as streaming (GPRS, WLAN etc.) or as BonusCopy. Digital paths must be not available (the one-chip method) as they can be hijacked. Digital I/Os will serve only as marketing tools. In half a year the analog loophole will be closed and the "Recorder" name will be another futile marketing term, like HD.

Welcome again in the Digital Age.

[RunningSkittle]

Yeah too bad the ISP's will do everything in their power (throttle/bandwidth cap) to nerf netflix into non existence.

[mike20021969]

this is the goal of the media content providers.
They're nailing the lid on their own coffin if that's the case.
Do you have a source for your claim?

I think disc based media will be around for at least another 50-100 years.
It's too popular with consumers for content providers to "ditch it".

In half a year the analog loophole will be closed

Can you elaborate on what you mean exactly?

PS Did you know vinyl is becoming popular again?

[CWR03]

Yeah too bad the ISP's will do everything in their power (throttle/bandwidth cap) to nerf netflix into non existence.
I've heard/read that in a lot of countries the bandwidth is capped at a maximum GB/month. Not so in the US - I don't know of any provider who does this.

As far as throttle, Netflix runs at about DVD quality on my DSL at work, which is the slowest available (about five times dial-up speed).

[burfadel]

Cloud based storage is excessively inefficient, and the requirement to download each time you want to use something is just well, silly! Due to privacy concerns with small operators, most people would utilise Google for example. Since no doubt a lot of people would upload material that has a copyright infringement, there might be a time where there is a court order that will shutdown the site = most people being 'screwed'. Even if it doesn't go this far, people may lose large amounts of their material that is mistaken for copyright infringement.

The bandwidth required for this is astronomical, and it will be a while before most people have access to internet that closely comes to that speed. Even if you have a 100Mbit connection the speed between you and the server has to be taken into account which would require a massive infrastructure investment in both local and intercontinental fibre-optic links.

No matter what you use as a format it will be eventually replaced! Saving it on a computer is one option, keeping in mind whatever video and audio codecs you use they will be eventually replaced. h.264 (used on blu-ray) and Mpeg2 (DVD/bluray) will still be around for quite a while, but will eventually be replaced by h.265 (currently in planning stage). The benefit of computer storage is 20 years down the track they can be converted into a newer format.

CD's and DVD's can be played in blu-ray players as they are all based on the same technology (effectively), just more advanced with blu-ray and DVD's over CD. The next step on from blu-ray will most likely not be an optical disk, although there are more advanced optical disks than blu-ray currently being developed. The most likely future replacement technology which is currently being developed and apparently works is light based storage. This technology is expect to have a maximum capacity of at least 1 terabyte/cm^3 (15.625TB/cubic inch), which is pretty good!

So, either computer based storage and DVD's are the safest bet, just don't skimp on the quality of the compression so they can be converted again later when necessary.

If you were referring to actually buying the DVD (etc) versions of the tapes, this may be more difficult. A lot of the material may only be on VHS, and its at least unlikely blu-ray versions of the material is available. If you are referring to converting the VHS tapes, DVD's are the safest bet in terms of price, ease of accessbility etc. Keep in mind though writeable DVD's can deteriorate, especially if exposed to fluorescent light or sunlight. You would have to make at least 3 copies of each tape since writeable DVD's are cheap. One would be for normal use, one as a normal use backup, and one as the 'master backup' (only used to print more copies, upon which time the new copy becomes the new master). You'd have to use good quality DVD's for this, and also consider DVD-R vs DVD+R. These are two different types of writeable DVD's, and unless you use a truly ancient DVD player all players are cable of the later ratified DVD+R. These two formats were designed by different consortiums, with DVD-R being the original and most common, and DVD+R being the more reliable. Of course, an average DVD+R can't beat a good DVD-R for reliability, but in terms of good DVD+R's, they are the best bet.

[Chetwood]

I've heard/read that in a lot of countries the bandwidth is capped at a maximum GB/month. Not so in the US - I don't know of any provider who does this.
So what about AT&T (http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110313/15543713473/att-jumps-into-metered-broadband-pool-150-gig-limit-dsl.shtml)? And the sneaky way (http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/29/netflix-partner-says-comcast-toll-threatens-online-video-delivery/) Comcast is going about it? They'll all learn from Canada (http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20110408/16503613835/bandwidth-caps-forcing-users-to-police-their-own-household-internet-usage.shtml). A good source on what's going on: Stop the Cap (http://stopthecap.com).

Do you have a source for your claim?
Where to start? You surely haven't missed the industry's continued push towards pay-per-use and the astonishing sense of entitlement currently most evident in the labels' demands for Amazon and Google to license their new music services?

[Blue_MiSfit]

Most tech savvy people I know (in the US) who consume a lot of media do it one of 3 ways

1) Subscription streaming services like Netflix and Hulu Plus. No new releases here, since the studios won't license new content for subscription services ("SVOD")

2) Transactional streaming services ("TVOD") like iTunes, Amazon, or VUDU, where you either pay a few dollars to stream a movie once, or something near DVD price to stream a movie all you want. All new releases are available, but you can't always own the content. Traditional cable / telco VOD services sort of fall into this category as well, even though they use different infrastructure and technologies.

3) Piracy

In my opinion, people don't like pay-per-use very much, but will tolerate it occasionally, for premium content, with a premium experience (instant delivery, HD, etc). Everyone I know does a LOT of subscription streaming though. Churning through back-catalogs of TV shows is particularly well suited to this format.

In terms of ratios, these SVOD services (and free offerings like Hulu) make up maybe 70% of the total content consumed. The rest, people either pirate or pay for on a transactional basis. The quality of new transactional services has improved quite a lot in the past few years, and is really 'just as easy' as pirating stuff. In fact, they are much easier for non-technical people, and are now integrated into new TVs and BluRay players, not to mention cheap media extenders if you've already invested in a home theater. Quality isn't quite as good as BluRay, but is usually quite close. Pirated content is often better from a quality perspective, but is almost never "instant on". It's also illegal/immoral ;)

Physical media is dead to plenty of people I know, myself included. I haven't bought or rented a BluRay or DVD for many months.

It's all converging, but I'm not sure exactly how it will all end up. The only thing I'm sure of is that lots of new companies need lots of video compression services, which is a good thing for folks with the know-how!

[Doom9]

I Germany, Blu-ray players now outsell DVD players - so it's a matter of time until disks do, too.
That doesn't say anything about non physical distribution formats though - there's the mother of all battles brewing between the last mile owners, content providers and those in between. Everybody wants a slice of the cake, and as long as everybody tries to screw the next guy over, success of streaming services will always be limited. Also, content owners will get to play a bigger part - it's one thing to get the studios and networks onboard for the US market, but Europe is a whole different ballgame - the common market is largely a fiction when it comes to content.

And, it's not like HD is the final frontier.. 4K resolution is coming and with it higher bandwidth requirements. The good old ISP duopoly will throw a lot of rocks onto the streaming 4K delivery train's tracks when it finally starts rolling.

[cjschaff]

Thank you EVERYONE for your inputs.

Seeing how this is church material, I don't plan on putting the VHS onto DVD due to copyright infringements (unless it is permitted via a loophole).
Most of the children's Titles are available on DVD. Most of the "adult" videos (NOT Porn, but still don't sound right) are not available, but those VERY rarely get borrowed.

The clientele of the church, I believe, would be about 10 - 15 years behind the curve anyways if a new format came out.

Thank you VERY much again on your comments.

OH.. quick thought.

Nobody spoke of this, but what about programmed chips? Kinda like a USB Flash drive, PERMANENTLY encoded with Video and/or Audio?
Just a passing thought

[CWR03]

Seeing how this is church material, I don't plan on putting the VHS onto DVD due to copyright infringements (unless it is permitted via a loophole).
That would fall under Fair Use, your right to keep a backup copy of copyrighted material you have purchased.

Nobody spoke of this, but what about programmed chips? Kinda like a USB Flash drive, PERMANENTLY encoded with Video and/or Audio?
Certainly doable, but not cost-effective compared to the price of blank DVDs. It would also require people to have hardware that can play media from a USB drive or to play it from a PC, whereas a DVD copy can be dropped into pretty much any DVD player.

[Vurbal]

Seeing how this is church material, I don't plan on putting the VHS onto DVD due to copyright infringements (unless it is permitted via a loophole).

Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer and this is not a substitute for expert legal advice.

The Supreme Court's decision in the Betamax case laid out a pretty solid groundwork for why format shifting (for non-commercial purposes) is fair use. The ruling specifically deals with time shifting instead, but in practical terms the arguments aren't really any different.

Having said that, I wouldn't worry about capturing anything unless you've already established that it can't be gotten on DVD or Blu-ray already.

[laserfan]

I don't plan on putting the VHS onto DVD due to copyright infringements (unless it is permitted via a loophole). Most of the children's Titles are available on DVD. Most of the "adult" videos (NOT Porn, but still don't sound right) are not available, but those VERY rarely get borrowed.
You didn't say anything up-front iirc about transferring VHS to DVD--THAT is a horrible idea! Great waste of time, to a guaranteed poor result. Maybe the adult videos don't get borrowed BECAUSE they're VHS tapes, but I would NOT expend any energy transferring them just to find out if the borrow rate would improve.

Replace the VHS tapes that the kids have been wearing-out (with commercial DVDs), and the adult tapes as DVDs become available, and be done with it.

[Ghitulescu]

They're nailing the lid on their own coffin if that's the case.
No, as one will have only one alternative (ok, the second being not to watch movies, how long can you withhold therefrom?)
Do you have a source for your claim?Not a punctual one and most of them are anyway confidential, but even you can look into their roadpaths and presentations
I think disc based media will be around for at least another 50-100 years.
It's too popular with consumers for content providers to "ditch it".So was the VHS and it was scraped before 50 years
Can you elaborate on what you mean exactly?Everything will become digital, no unnecessary A/D/A conversions needed. And since the world is divided into producers and consumers, and since the producers lobbied and lobbied and lobbied and .... everything is now digitally copy-protected (this was actually the reason for moving into the digital age, as analog copy-protections sucked). The analog loophole was the only allowable way of copying digital material, and it was allowed as of mid 2012 no apparatus/gear/player will sport analog connections. So one cannot copy anything and the word Recorder will probably become an archaism. And I assume that the RIAA tax on virgin media will still stay in force.PS Did you know vinyl is becoming popular again?
Yes, because it's incopiable. Besides, it's not the audiophiles but the studios that decided on this issue as all vinyl records are done using digital masters. It's a hype, which is alimented by "subventioned" articles, paid commercials and so on.