Blu-ray will lose and kill the PS3

[Terranigma]

Blu-ray: RIP

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) to hedge its bets and go with both formats.

However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony (NYSE: SNE) Latest News about Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market, effectively giving it to Nintendo Latest News about Nintendo and Microsoft.

Given my history with Sony, you'd think I'd know better and would have assumed it would be that stupid. That likely would have resulted in a lot less pain all around.

PlayStation3 Impact

Not only was Blu-ray too expensive, the technology wasn't as far along as Sony led us to believe. The delays not only make the PS3 too expensive; they made it late. That was effectively a one-two punch, knocking Sony out of the lead so far in the game console business. Now, Sony is dead last by a significant margin.

This means that developers, instead of favoring Sony with their best stuff, are now concentrating on the Xbox first, and increasingly the Wii Latest News about Wii. That's because both have more homes, and thus represent a greater revenue opportunity, than Sony does.

So instead of the PS3 ensuring Blu-ray's success, right now it appears that Blu-ray may have effectively killed the PS3, at least in terms of market leadership. We'll have to wait until the PS4 before Sony has a chance to come back.

Not a Viable Data Storage Option

Blu-ray's biggest advantage is storage Learn how SAN/iQ technology works with VMware. capacity; however, storage has grown so fast that you can get a 750 GB Seagate external drive for less than US$250.

To back that up on a 25 GB Blu-ray recorder would take 30 Blu-ray disks and more time than I think anyone in their right mind would accept. Neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray are likely to become backup platforms, and most of the data we move still fits easily on a standard dual-layer DVD.

With increasingly high-speed networks, people are using things like BitTorrent to use big files or portable high-capacity hard drives. So as transport, they aren't particularly practical either.

The high-volume home for HD Optical disks remains as a replacement for the DVD. The studios, which are not doing anywhere near as well as they'd like, desperately need something to drive revenues higher.

Both Could Fail

That won't happen until both one standard is clear and the related players drop below $200. They need both to happen or the market won't move. Currently, Blu-ray is running at more than twice the target price on players and HD-DVD is about 15 percent over target. In the case of the Xbox 360 Latest News about Xbox 360 accessory, it's actually about 15 percent under target.

This means that if the studios have any chance this year of getting a large ramp -- and I would include Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) Latest News about Wal-Mart, Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) Latest News about Amazon.com and anyone else that sells HD movies -- it has to be HD-DVD. Blu-ray simply can't get there.

I think all realize, or should, time isn't unlimited either. We are already talking about what comes after HD-DVD and Blu-ray, and scalers are getting so good that increasingly many are arguing that you don't need either now.

In other words, while Blu-ray can't win, in my view, there is still an excellent chance the market will simply bypass both if one doesn't ramp to high volume this year. In that instance, everyone loses.

Cause for Change

I think Paramount and DreamWorks saw this outcome and are trying to avoid it. While they did get an estimated $250 million incentive to move, that doesn't change the result. The studio execs likely realize if revenues don't improve, many of them may not be around by this time next year. Unemployment is a rather impressive motivator for change.

So, as of right now, I think it is reasonably obvious Blu-ray lost. The only question is whether HD-DVD will be allowed to win; and the decision may be up to Time Warner or Disney (NYSE: DIS) and not Sony or Toshiba Latest News about Toshiba.

If both lose, the long-term strategic fallout for Sony and Disney will be both impressive and memorable in terms of either company's influence going forward -- in fact, for Sony, I'm not sure things actually could get much worse.

Rob Enderle
--technewsworld (http://www.technewsworld.com/story/WIkqRmgiiUw0IV/Blu-ray-Loses-RhapsodyMTV-Target-iTunes-Weakness-Product-of-the-Week.xhtml)--

[Dr.Khron]

Holy crap, a thorough and well-written opinion.

Will you be billing us for that? ;)

[Doobie]

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast.

Sony's use of blu-ray in the PS3 made the PS3 very expensive, but it gave a huge boost to blu-ray. And, as blu-ray prices come down and the greater potential of the PS3 is utilized, PS3 sales will eventually pass 360 sales.

If Sony tried to make the PS3 cheaper with DVD, it would have been very shortsighted.

To back that up on a 25 GB Blu-ray recorder would take 30 Blu-ray disks and more time than I think anyone in their right mind would accept.

As if using over 100 DVDs is any better than 30 blu-ray disks, yet DVD burners are very popular.

In other words, while Blu-ray can't win, in my view,

Get some glasses.

This is blu-ray's race. The studios love the strong DRM and Sony will pump out increasing numbers of blu-ray PS3s.

[Terranigma]

I did'nt write this, and if you scroll down below, I gave a link to the news article & name of the Author. This's why I originally posted this in the news forums. :p

[Guest]

It's not news; it's opinion/advocacy, as I explained to you in PM.

[Terranigma]

It's not news; it's opinion/advocacy, as I explained to you in PM.

Of course; I wasn't really referring to you of course, but to the user who thinks that's me talking there. :p

[PuzZLeR]

The whole thing is like a dam really.

The general public is waiting for a clear winner before they embrace anything here, including me. It's not even about the money or the high prices either that's stifling things. I think it's the fear of investing in a library of a format that has the serious potential to be obsolete or no longer supported, well before its time, that bothers the public.

Personally, I'd hate to buy dozens, even hundreds, of one disc format only to find it suddenly died and I need to now get the other format.

However, I wouldn't be suprised one bit that if there's a clear winner established, then the public would run out and heavily support the winner. That's when prices will drop and the format will move forward and truly hit primetime. I do believe the market is ready to support it. The dam is ready to burst on this one and the winner of the two is really going to enjoy tremendous profitability - especially since it will be the "only one" after a brutal format war gave it such publicity to begin with.

I am personally in the belief that blu-ray is superior, has better support, has better attention from the public and will win easily...

...except for one thing that will almost certainly save and ensure victory for HD-DvD...

Hybrid drives.

Yes, the BD costs heavily outweigh HD-DvD costs for companies suppporting the format at almost 4:1.

Guess which format these companies will support and manufacture if hybrid drives - those players that support both formats - dominate the market?

[blutach]

Normally a very early adopter, I am waiting to see which format takes hold. I am sure that I am not Robinson Crusoe either.

And Terranigma, please do not copy and post articles verbatim as this may violate the author's copyright in them. Links to them are much preferred.

Regards

[Alosaur]

Yes Blu-Ray will clearly lose when it outsells HD DVD in every period the sales are tracked by margins of 2:1 or 3:1. Yep that sounds like a format that's in dire straits.

[blutach]

Tell you what is a real interesting article

http://www.doom9.org/index.html?/no_choice.htm

Regards

[laserfan]

Tell you what is a real interesting article

http://www.doom9.org/index.html?/no_choice.htmWow, quite a treatise--who the heck wrote that anyhow?

I particularly like the take on Sony--I used to be a big fan, but they've killed dead my interest in them. No more.

[mr soft]

That is a very eye opening article. I’m sure backhanders in this industry are rife. The gaming market is a very, very lucrative business.

Oh, and speaking of choice, the console market is a great example of the consumer not having much of a choice. Want Halo3? You have to get an Xbox 360. Want the next Metal Gear Solid? Get a Play station. Especially for third party games, the console market has long since driven on console makers paying off game makers for exclusivity.

One of the biggest and best sellers was the GTA franchise.
Rockstar is going to launch GTA 4 on PS3. The only way Sony will kill the PS3 is if Square enix, rockstar, and other big names they have, jump ship. The difference between the two consoles is minimal; with the Xbox coming in slightly ahead if memory serves me right. I very much loved my PS1, and my PS2. but the PS3 is well out of my reach, and probably will be for a few years.
Imagine a games console with the hybrid dual drives. Movie studios could produce whatever format they desired as could game makers. mmmmmmmmmmm dual.

[Doobie]

I did'nt write this,

I know you didn't write it, and I apologize for the apparent direction of my reply to you. But, I found the article to be really stupid.

I pointed out long ago that blu-ray will win because the strong DRM makes it a studio darling. And, the PS3 will put millions of blu-ray players in consumer hands.

The twit blows off the $250 incentive paramount was given to be HD-DVD exclusive (which I predict will be short-lived, and these exclusives will eventually be released in blu-ray), and insanely asserts that Paramount is otherwise helping its bottom line by cutting off consumers who use blu-ray.

He says blu-ray is too small to back up big hard drives, which is almost as stupid as saying blu-ray will fail because the disks don't taste good with mustard (even though, blu-ray does taste better with mustard than HD-DVD and DVD).

The article is about blu-ray, but because the twit can't find any way the PS3 harms blu-ray, he ignores the benefit of PS3 to blu-ray and tosses out his stupid assertion that blu-ray will kill the PS3.

Rob Enderle proves he's mentally incompetent, not merely ignorant about next-gen DVD. His brain is small and smooth and so everything he writes about must necessarily be stupid. I'd allow for him taking money to dump on blu-ray, but if I wanted to bash blu-ray I could have done a far better job (such as claiming consumers will resist blu-ray because of the DRM that kills fair use, consumer ill-will toward Sony, etc.).

[Guest]

@Doobie

Rule 4: "Insults will not be tolerated."

Rob Enderle proves he's mentally incompetent, not merely ignorant about next-gen DVD. His brain is small and smooth and so everything he writes about must necessarily be stupid.

Struck for rule 4.

[laserfan]

I very much loved my PS1, and my PS2. but the PS3 is well out of my reach, and probably will be for a few years.This is it, the core issue--Sony's game console is too expensive for kids, or at least there are many, many (and more reasonably-priced) alternatives for kids, and a game console for wealthy adults is not going to drive a Blu-Ray victory.

"Strong DRM" may (temporarily) appeal to studios, but DRM over the long haul is a huge negative--hated by consumers; obviously Sony hasn't learned anything from their past mistakes!!!

[kurt]

obviously Sony hasn't learned anything from their past mistakes!!!
agreed. We should learn our lessons and avoid Sony products. Doom9 is damn right about this topic...

[mr soft]

I just don’t think the Blu-ray drive alone will kill the PS3
Launching the console with very few games titles doesn’t help
But the icing on the cake has to be downgrading the unit for the European market. Not being able to play some of your PS2 titles is a bit of a bummer. Sony has been naughty and needs to be bashed. This site does just that.
Trying to force a new high def format with total disregard to fairuse whatsoever is inexcusable. Sony knows what their customers want, flexibility with their purchased media, yet they go out of their way to make this impossible.

@laserfan I’m neither a kid nor a wealthy adult, just Joe bloe
on an average salary who can’t justify 500 odd euro. Even if I could I don’t think I would, as Sony would be the only winner.

Mini-disc anyone?

[Doobie]

In July, Sony sold 159,000 PS3s. Microsoft sold 170,000. The trend has been Sony is closing the gap. At this rate, Sony will own Christmas 2007. In two years, the 360 will be all but dead (which means Microsoft is already working on XBox III).

[CruNcher]

The Devices Sony creates with no doubt are Hightech but the Price we (literaly) have to pay for the possesion of such Devices is very high, first every accesoire from Sony costs awefull amount of money (they play with their Brand here) then the user gets restricted in every way it can help Sony to make even more money.
Sony's PSP UMD Resolution restrictions for average consumers as the best example (and their try to sell higher resolution stuff online) so we had to pay for Resolution and this was forced by the Firmware upon us gladly it was hacked very early if UMD wouldn't have been a disaster and the hackers wouldn't have circumvented the restrictions full PAL palyback of user created content on the PSP would have not been possible by now (or you have had to pay extra for it).
We have to show the industry that they can't do everything with us they wan't todo like a pupet, they don't create all this stuff only for Protection but also for Restriction and to get more profit from those (Think about a Device that's connected to the internet or in the future the Grid and wich has direct connection to your bank account and when you wan't to watch your stuff in HD on that Device you will be asked for XXX amount of money to be transfered before HD playback is geting activated (everything allready developed the Device is ready for it but you will be asked for extra payment before you can make use of it) in the future and that is not far away actually allready possible with the Xbox360 and PS3, if we don't stop it from happening at least there is a need for a instance controlling this "Power of Controll and Restriction" @ the moment the Hackers are those that keep the Balance, but they are threated like terrorist lately by the big companies and as a threat for profit they need to be eliminated, sad but true.
We never thought about such stuff before because it wasn't possible but now it is Micropayment will be used in the future alot and everyone tries to get it's revenue from it but not only Sony also Microsoft and they will try to force us by restricting the Firmware and trying to protect all this with Paladium (NCGB) like architectures TPMs, Hypervisors and whatnot only to make more money not for Protection of the Movie content sure the Movie industry likes to hear that like: "We do that all for you and the Protection of your money", but it's only half of the truth they wan't everyone to belive that, see all the Marketing stuff going on most times HDCP is sold as something good a new cool feature i can't belive this going arround the Shops and seeing all this Advertising for HDCP the new cool thing, jesus are most of the people got blind in this Techno Society ?.

But everything of this has todo with 1 Major keypoint in our lives "Entertainment" we don't have to follow it but we are brought their todo it yes we even get manipulated todo so and that starts allready in our childhood and not many see what is happening with them they get blind trying to survive in the system, and everything of that only for the purpose that a small amount of executives and shareholders can Drive their Ferraris and sit with their fat asses in their Officies and shuffeling all the Production facilities into low cost countrys where wages are so low that you are happy to survive the next month, this sucks.

[foxyshadis]

Both of them simply represent an erosion of our ownership. I've been played for by too many software companies forcing "upgrades" that aren't and disabling features in order to feed their subscription models while claiming to be purchases (Intuit is the best-known offender) to believe that the movie studios aren't going to eventually see an opportunity to monetize AACS revocation. Today, those in the know can strip all of that, until the disc perversions like macrovision and arccos show up, but it's just another step to alternative subscription models. I'm not worried so much for myself, but for family, friends, and peers who aren't as involved and might find it easier to pay out to get it to play again.

I expect that there's enough momentum behind both formats that the eventual winner will be dual-format drives, anyway.

[HyperHacker]

Regarding the data storage factor, I recall hearing that a USB hard drive is actually a cheaper option for I think it was 250GB or more.

Also, I suspect quite a few people are quite satisfied with 480p and don't care for either high-definition format. Even after I showed my dad the difference between 480p and 1080i with his Xbox 360 (the TV does 1080i, but he had the Xbox set to 480p), he still doesn't see any reason to buy an HD-DVD player, even though he was impressed with the improved picture quality. Other people I've talked to generally share this opinion. DVD is good enough.

[PuzZLeR]

@Doobie
Rule 4: "Insults will not be tolerated."
Struck for rule 4.Hello Neuron2.

With all due respect, the way that rule reads is to not insult, or be mean to, another member in the forum, not necessarily to an external party. Either that or there should be a clearer re-write of #4.

Even so, shouldn't there be some margin for critical commentary? It can make good reading as long as there was no profanity. I was kind of enjoying that post...:p

[Guest]

@PuzZLeR

If you want to discuss the rules you can send me a PM or use the Forum/Site Suggestions forum. This thread is not the place.

[PuzZLeR]

@PuzZLeR

If you want to discuss the rules you can send me a PM or use the Forum/Site Suggestions forum. This thread is not the place.By all means.

[Sharktooth]

just posted this in the news section: http://forum.doom9.org/showthread.php?t=129409
may be be interesting

[Doobie]

With all due respect, the way that rule reads is to not insult, or be mean to, another member in the forum, not necessarily to an external party. Either that or there should be a clearer re-write of #4.

Thank you for the support. I've been posting here for years and that's the first warning I've received (at least that I remember). I don't think I was in violation of Rule #4 for the reason you give.

I just now decided to look a closer at Rob Enderle, to test my earlier claim about his competence.

Enderle, 10/20/03, "I have a hard time seeing the [Linux] Zealots as any different from terrorists because of the nature of their threats. I expect one of them -- or perhaps a group of them -- will go too far at some point and do significant damage to the open-source movement, the ongoing litigation with SCO or their employers. I strongly believe that if September 11th showed us anything, it was that zealots of any movement represent a huge risk to that movement because they do not consider the repercussions of their actions." It's like Enderle expected some Linux fans to hijack airplanes and crash them into homes of people who work for SCO (what violence has Linux zealots ever committed?).

Enderle has been pro-SCO in everything I've seen. For example, 08/04/04, "Folks [should] stand up for the rights of others, because those rights are vastly more important than any piece of software." He's talking about SCO's rights and is objecting to claims of the "Linux crowd." (Enderle, what about the rights of the accused? No one has suggested that SCO's rights be ignored, only that they're up to FUD, as I said in this forum in 2003). He predicted that IBM would settle. If he weren't incompetent, he would have known that SCO had no case.

According to MacObserver.com, 5/1/06, "Rob Enderle makes a record-breaking prediction of death for the Mac platform (no one has been wrong more often than Mr. Enderle -- Congrats!), this time suggesting that Apple will voluntarily exit the computer business if it can't double market share by 2008."

The point is, I was not being gratuitous nor saying anything with the intent of insult, only with the intent of warning to readers not to think there's any authority behind those statements. The fact is, the article on blu-ray is so addled that it reflects general incompetency. I wish him no ill, but I don't know why anyone is paying him for his stupid opinions. If he weren't a professional writer and technology consultant (notice how he wears his credentials on his sleeve in the article on blu-ray), I wouldn't have felt the need to be so personal in my criticism of him.

[Doom9]

@Doobie: the French have a say: c'est le ton qui fait la musique.
And where are the sources of these quotes?

We've seen a lot of HD PR bluster in the past year - and a lot of it has turned out to be incorrect. For many months, we saw stories about how Blu-ray had won the war and how HD DVD would go away by the end of the year. Guess what... ain't gonna happen. Now we start seeing stories that point the other way - half a year from now they've probably been dismantled, too.

The article's title is also kind of inflammatory. There's a huge difference between ... kill the PS3 and Blu-ray may have effectively killed the PS3, at least in terms of market leadership.. You can hardly consider 4.5 million units dead. I also think it's reasonable to think Sony will drop the Playstation line and consoles just don't go away that easy, plus Sony has a lot of cash from the PS2 and TV market to throw away unless their shareholders decide to pull the plug. Just because Playstation2 came in first, and the PS3 is third at this point, doesn't mean that it will go away.. I remember when Nintendo dominated the console market - and didn't do too well with the Gamecube and now they're back on top.. That just goes to show how volatile the market can be.

[Gerard V]

There are many factors in this race. But the most salient point IMHO is the comment made earlier that the consumer is being completely bamboozled about a subject they just don’t care about and which should not have to be important to them.

It is an enormous frustration to have to complete a university degree in media technologies in order to buy a home entertainment device. I have a first class honours degree in Computer Science and I can’t be bothered. I can afford HD-Tv and such but they have scared me off.

So like most consumers I work backwards from what I want to achieve. I own a PS2. I didn’t buy it because of the tech, the DVD etc. I bought it to play Singstar (and I admit that with mild embarrassment), and only because it was cheap and seemed worthwhile. It annoys me that the next game I liked was only available on Nintendo. I bought neither. I’d not have bought a PS2 at all if I could have bought Singstar for the PC, but there is no such thing. (Yes I know about ultrastar).

No-one will win IMHO, until they start to focus again on the consumer, not on protecting their revenues. They will get precious little revenue without consumers. And that is what is missing from this discussion, really. The tech wont matter, nor will DRM (that’s just more tech). Whoever makes it easy, makes it work all the time, plays almost everything, and cheap will own the game (or pwn it if you prefer).

[Sharktooth]

wise words... i can add BD+ is just another way to focus on protecting revenues...

[Doobie]

No-one will win IMHO, until they start to focus again on the consumer, not on protecting their revenues.

You're right on. People don't even want the hassle of setting a clock on a VCR. I don't blame them. I still remember buying my first DVD player. I couldn't connect it and my VCR directly to the TV and the same time so I connected the DVD player through the VCR, just to have the macrovision protection make the DVD unwatchable.

Blu-ray isn't yet using BD++ and neither Blu-ray or HD-DVD is yet using encrypted output. They want a dependent market before they turn up the hassles.

[noclip]

I think that eventually each product will have its own use. BD has more capacity but requires new replication equipment for pressed discs whereas HD's 30GB is easily sufficient for pretty much any film and existing DVD replication equipment can be used to press HD DVDs. My prediction is that BD will end up as predominantly a recordable/rewritable data storage format and HD DVD will win out for delivering films.

[sportcenter]

Region-Free
BD+

enough said....

HD DVD > Blu-ray

[Doobie]

I think that eventually each product will have its own use. BD has more capacity but requires new replication equipment for pressed discs whereas HD's 30GB is easily sufficient for pretty much any film and existing DVD replication equipment can be used to press HD DVDs. My prediction is that BD will end up as predominantly a recordable/rewritable data storage format and HD DVD will win out for delivering films.

There can be only one.

I don't know where you get your ideas. HD-DVD is the computer industry darling. Blu-ray is the movie industry darling.

I just thought of a joke:

Did you hear about the blond who used white-out on her computer monitor? She wanted to correct a typo! Did you hear about the blond I told this joke to? She replied, "What's wrong with that?" Sigh.