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Old 24th September 2003, 19:34   #21  |  Link
unmei
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@GLDM these are sure the most hitekky headphones i ever saw there is only two things wrong with: i havent seen them in a store and i dont plan to get a credit card to start online shopping, and second they are eight times the price of my current ones which im fully satisfied with and i cant see tech specs like signal/noise or linearity distortion ..mine are cheap but among the best cheap ones :P
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Old 24th September 2003, 22:58   #22  |  Link
General Lee D. Mented
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Quote:
Originally posted by unmei
@GLDM these are sure the most hitekky headphones i ever saw there is only two things wrong with: i havent seen them in a store and i dont plan to get a credit card to start online shopping, and second they are eight times the price of my current ones which im fully satisfied with and i cant see tech specs like signal/noise or linearity distortion ..mine are cheap but among the best cheap ones :P
I've seen them at the Metreon in SF, but that's like Sony's own store, so obviously they'd have there.

I don't think signal/noise or distortion are the main selling points, though I'd assume they're comparable to something near the highend sonys. It's probably listed on their website. Most people buying this want it for the 6.1 channel HRTF rendered sound, or direct digital DTS stream input etc. :P

I'm currently very happy with my $85 sennheiser 280 pros.
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Old 25th September 2003, 02:34   #23  |  Link
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Are you talking about this?

http://www.futureshop.ca/multimedia/...e/05612433.jpg
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Old 25th September 2003, 19:21   #24  |  Link
General Lee D. Mented
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Originally posted by Sirber
Are you talking about this?

http://www.futureshop.ca/multimedia/...e/05612433.jpg
I'm talking about http://www.sonystyle.com/is-bin/INTE...ies_Headphones

and http://www.sennheiser.com/sennheiser...hones_dj_04974
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Old 26th September 2003, 17:22   #25  |  Link
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Hmm... 5 years !?!

Maybe CPU power is about 15-20 GHz then... ???

Maybe HD have more capacity than 1TB then... ???

Maybe most Hollywood movie are 90% CG then... ???

Maybe all movies in cinemas are direct streamed over net then... ???

Maybe we have some sort of 3D TV's then... ???

Maybe the count of speakers for surround sound getting more then...(<8.1) ???

Maybe the count is getting lower, because of better psy decode methods then...(>5.1) ???

Maybe Mobile Phones and PDA's are the same then... ???

Maybe TV's and PC's are the same then... ???

Maybe standalones and PC's are the same then... ???

Maybe we have multiple soundtracks for each movie on one disc then... ??? (rock, pop, dance, classic, rap... etc.)

Maybe we have net-connection to download 1GB in 1min. then... ???

Maybe M$ begins to build a new secret KI-based OS codename "MATRIX" then... ???

Maybe DukeNukem4Ever is released then... ???

Maybe Ive won in the lottery till then... ???

[PS: I think winning in the lottery is more realistic than DN4Ever gets released... ]

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Old 26th September 2003, 22:46   #26  |  Link
General Lee D. Mented
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>Maybe CPU power is about 15-20 GHz then... ???

Probably closer to 10-12Ghz. 5years is not that long and we haven't hit 5 yet. The rate is slowing.

>Maybe HD have more capacity than 1TB then... ???

Dunno about single HDs. RAIDs definately.

>Maybe most Hollywood movie are 90% CG then... ???

Doubt it, screen actors guild and unions would throw a fit.

>Maybe all movies in cinemas are direct streamed over net then... ???

Doubt it, too many problems with connections dying. Maybe a dedicated backbone network.

>Maybe we have some sort of 3D TV's then... ???

Can have it now, problem is multiple viewers.

>Maybe the count of speakers for surround sound getting more then...
>(<8.1) ???

Not enough improvement to justify the cost. The only real revolution I can see is hypersonic systems using phase intersecting ultrasound.

>Maybe the count is getting lower, because of better psy decode
>methods then...(>5.1) ???

Possibly, but doubt it. That kinda thing doesn't work well on anything except headphones because the environment messes up the phase cues.

>Maybe Mobile Phones and PDA's are the same then... ???

Probably.

>Maybe TV's and PC's are the same then... ???

Unlikely, people don't wanna have to deal with a PC to watch TV.

>Maybe standalones and PC's are the same then... ???

Standalones?

>Maybe we have multiple soundtracks for each movie on one disc
>then... ??? (rock, pop, dance, classic, rap... etc.)

Doubt it, to expensive to produce.

>Maybe we have net-connection to download 1GB in 1min. then... ???

Yes, but you can only upload at ISDN speeds still, and all ports are firewalled and everyone is behind a nat and it scans your processes for P2P apps every day.

>Maybe M$ begins to build a new secret KI-based OS codename "MATRIX"
>then... ???

KI-based? No idea what that is.

>Maybe DukeNukem4Ever is released then... ???

Maybe hell will have a decent ski season and daikatana 2 will be the top seller.

>Maybe Ive won in the lottery till then... ???

I hope I win it tonight, $126 million. :P
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Old 27th September 2003, 20:39   #27  |  Link
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Maybe CPU power is about 15-20 GHz then... ???

Probably closer to 10-12Ghz. 5years is not that long and we haven't hit 5 yet. The rate is slowing.

Hmm... Think there could be a "jump" in the rate... Because of new ways to build processors... (3D working processors)


Maybe most Hollywood movie are 90% CG then... ???

Doubt it, screen actors guild and unions would throw a fit.

OK, actors real, but the rest of the movie could be CG...


Maybe TV's and PC's are the same then... ???

Unlikely, people don't wanna have to deal with a PC to watch TV.

Mean that TV'S are able to do lot of stuff that PC's can do (Internet etc.)


Maybe standalones and PC's are the same then... ???

Standalones?

Yeah ! Mean DVD players etc. That they are able to play all kinds of data, not only MPEG1/2 and maybe MPEG4... [PS: Same for GamingConsoles etc.]


Maybe M$ begins to build a new secret KI-based OS codename "MATRIX"
then... ???

KI-based? No idea what that is.

Ohw.. (think this is a german shorting) Think its "AI" in english...
Was just a yoke... ! M$ beginns to build "THE MATRIX" OS... !


Maybe DukeNukem4Ever is released then... ???

Maybe hell will have a decent ski season and daikatana 2 will be the top seller.

LOL
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Last edited by Soulhunter; 27th September 2003 at 20:43.
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Old 30th October 2008, 02:09   #28  |  Link
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Well 5 years has passed, lets see how close some of the predictions were. It would be fun to do something like this to present the results
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sketche..._the_Year_2000

Prediction: DVDs will be so cheap to own rentals will be a thing of the past.
Outcome: Nope, in fact rentals have gotten cheaper, while new DVD's are still costly.

Prediction: Most people will not be buying their music in a physical format by then.
Outcome: iTunes has taken over for the most part.

Prediction: Movies will be available cheaply online.
Outcome: Netflix's Watch Instantly feature has done this.

Prediction: MPEG-4 (DivX,xvid) will still be going strong.
Outcome: H.264 has rocked the world with flash support and in the near future MS Silverlight.

Prediction: Chipsets and videocards supporting H.264 will becoming standard.
Outcome: DirectX Video Acceleration or DXVA has made this a standard.

Prediction: Encoding H.264 at home will be slower and not much better quality than xvid API9.
Outcome: X.264 has surpassed xvid in terms of efficiency.

Prediction: open-source project hdot264 will have reached version 1.0.
Outcome: X.264 will release 1.0 once Core i7 (Nehalem) goes to market.

Prediction: One or two huge lawsuits, probably involving Microsoft, that kill a standard or two.
Outcome: Nope, all video standards still exist.

Prediction: no more confusion around the DVD format.
Outcome: eh, who knows?

Prediction: DVD players will support Matroska
Outcome: Don't think so...?

Prediction: We'll have access to legally downloadable movies for couple $$.. with best quality available.
Outcome: as a stream yes, as a file no.

Prediction: Windows Media Video 11/12 (partially based on h264) will rule the world.
Outcome: WMV 9 uses VC-1, and in the states here it did rule the Olympics... close but no world domination.

Prediction: DRM will be cracked
Outcome: Yes and no, Blu-Ray was the most recent DRM "crack" that made major news on the Internet. New forms of DRM are always being dreamed up so any grand eureka regarding DRM is probably an unreachable goal, for both parties I might add (implementations & crackers).

Prediction: No one will care about software piracy
Outcome: Far from the truth, it is still a huge issue.

Prediction: A player that allows me to play movies faster by an arbitrary percentage.
Outcome: ReClock DirectShow Filter can do this

Prediction: DVD burners will finally be able to burn 9 gb discs.
Outcome: True... 8.5GB

Prediction: h.264 will not be adopted in hardware players yet.
Outcome: False, All Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players can playback h.264.

Prediction: Price of CD's rising as the price of DVD's have dropped drastically.
Outcome: CD's have dropped a little in price due to online music sales, DVD's are still costly.

Prediction: A standard favorite format for DVD R's will exist (+/-).
Outcome: Who uses media when HD's and flash are so freakin cheap!

Prediction: Microsoft will still be a big name in video compression.
Outcome: Because of Silverlight, MS could be leading in the near future.

Prediction: Divx will also be a household name as they are commercial and will be developing more and more hardware players.
Outcome: True, you can get Divx certified devices.

Prediction: Divx codec should be good but there will no longer be a 'free' version, hence Xvid and others will surpass them in this area.
Outcome: Divx still has a free version.

Prediction: Container similar to Mostroska but for commercial use that one would have to pay for initially and would self destruct after so many uses
Outcome: None as far as I know.

Prediction: There will still be developments in h.264, realmedia, Xvid, perhaps Divx, and probably a couple of new compression formats as well as containers.
Outcome: X.264 is moving ahead, xvid has come to a standstill, never used realmedia or Divx. There's always something new in terms of compression and containers (BBC Dirac).

Prediction: US will be renamed Disneyland and the US military turned into a copyright enforcement police force.
Outcome: US is still US. The copyright enforcement police force will be showing up in 2009...

Prediction: Devices capable of playing A/V will be illegal to operate without a network connect.
Outcome: Blu Ray???

Prediction: A/V Playback devices will all have mandatory blackboxes which will legally allow the incorporated government to observe anything you do on them at any given time to make sure you aren't infringing copyrights.
Outcome: Windows Vista? Otherwise false

Prediction: Production of media without Hollywood supplied encryption and watermarking will be illegal
Outcome: False

Prediction: we will watch low quality mpeg-1 movies and like it.
Outcome: Youtube!

Prediction: DVDs and CDs will be sold only on eBay as curios as Blu-ray drives take over the market.
Outcome: Far from the truth.

Prediction: The MPAA and RIAA finally go bankrupt and people throw a week-long party.
Outcome: Party hat still in my desk, awaiting this day.

Prediction: Encoding at hi def resolutions in 5 years time.
Outcome: Yes we are.

Prediction: DVDs will be cheap and auto-destructing.
Outcome: Nope

Prediction: Blockbuster will be hurting due to lost revenue from overdue movies, as they now don't need to be returned, ever.
Outcome: Netflix has done its damage.

Prediction: H.264 set top boxes will be being discussed by industry magazines, with maybe one or two expensive ones actually available on the market.
Outcome: HD-DVD & Blu Ray both use H.264

Prediction: content base will be nonexistant because 99.99% of the public believes "DVD is good enough."
Outcome: For the most part yes

Prediction: There will be discussion of upcoming blu-ray disc HD players that use H.264 as their native format due in 2 years (7 years from now).
Outcome: They already support H.264

Prediction: MPEG and derivatives will have been crushed by advanced supertemporal wavelet codecs and adaptive codecs.
Outcome: Wait another 5 years.

Prediction: $1 256MB solid state MRAM cards will be the portability medium of choice for video, which people like to watch on PDAs and laptops on the go.
Outcome: True for the most part, flash is dirt cheap, but disks still rule video.

Prediction: DVD burners software will have heavy copy-protection circumvention features, much like CDR software does now.
Outcome: burners never really had the circumvention features, it was always the rippers.

Prediction: The "We have too much free time" scene will be hacking ways to get movies to play on portable game systems, popularized by sony's playstation portable.
Outcome: Right on the money.

Prediction: Software app development will have moved on to editors, and new apps that not only encode but peform functions equivalent to Premiere and in some cases beyond will be in various stages of completion.
Outcome: Blender & Cinelerra.

Prediction: Filesharing apps will be smarter and still rampant.
Outcome: Torrents are huge

Prediction: Various security measures will be integrated to provide anonymous downloading.
Outcome: Not really unless your a nut and using Tor for torrents.

Prediction: Cable modem providers will be losing customers to DSL as they block more ports and throttle more bandwidth, aggrivating users.
Outcome: True, but here in the states, it's still a monopoly when it comes to high speed Internet. Most people can only choose one provider.

Prediction: DSL providers that are hurting now will be gaining customer base by advertising openness of access and "Guaranteed bandwidth that's never capped."
Outcome: With Comcasts recent 250GB limit, this might come true.

Prediction: mf will have a girlfriend, who may or may not be an actual biological girl.
Outcome: Earlier this month a Turing test fooled 25 percent of human judges. One step closer to AI.

Prediction: People will look at Mpeg-4 (incl. AVC) as we do now at mpeg-2, a solid, boring industry standard.
Outcome: Wrong. AVC is on the cutting edge.



Stopped at post #11 if someone wants to continue...
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Old 30th October 2008, 04:20   #29  |  Link
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Prediction: CDs will be dead, DVDs will be on cusp of obsolete and Blu-ray dominant
Reality: CDs only good for music now, DVDs still the dominant format

Prediction: CDs will be hard and expensive to find, DVDs will be dirt cheap, Blu-rays will be moderately priced and more and more dominant
Reality: CDs are still cheap and plentiful, DVds are a bit more expensive and Blu-rays are a bit pricey still. Not $45/disc though

Prediction: Blu-ray will be plentiful for sale
Reality: Yep, not dominant but it's easy to find.

Prediction: Most of us will be doing HD cpature off airwaves and encoding HD movies at 720p or higher
Reality: Most are still on DVD, but most people can and are doing HD airwave capcture and encoding @ 720p.

Prediction: We'll debate whether 1 DVD HD-rips are worth quality
Reality: We're actually debating over 720p vs 1080p on a DVD-5

Prediction: Blank DVD-Rs are $0.25 or less.
Reality: Bingo.

Prediction: quantum computing logic will be developed
Reality: Actually it has.. Some researchers made a 4-quibit computer I think

Prediction: EMI will face a backlash for having CDs sound no better than the mp3s
Reality: Uh? I don't think this has happened.

Prediction: Internet will be pay-per-click
Reality: If you're talking about ads, yes.

Prediction: George Bush will be justifying his war on New Zealand
Reality: No.

Prediction: USB keys with 40 GB for $100. ($2.5/GB)
Reality: I can get a 32 GB flash drive for $60 on newegg ($1.87/GB)

Prediction: By the time I'll have money to buy DV camera, we'll be onto HDTV
Reality: Yep.

Prediction: Portishead will finally release their new album
Reality: too lazy to check wikipedia.

Prediction: CPU power is 15-20 GHz
Reality: If you consider 4 cores @ 4 GHz... It's been done then.

Prediction: HD will have 1 TB capacity:
Reality: We're up to 1.5 TB actually

Prediction: Most hollywood movies are CG
Reality: Actually not that far off.

Prediction: All movies in cinema are direct streamed
Reality: Not quite but we do have a lot of digital theaters

Prediction: 3D Tvs
Reality: No, but there are 2 3D LCD monitors..

Prediction: More speakers for surround sound
Reality: We went up to 7.1 now, but that's about it

Prediction: Count is lower because of better codecs
Reality: Uh, count is low because it's impractical to have a dozen speakers

Prediction: Mobile Phones and PDAs are the same
Reality: Mobile Phones are converging with PDAs, but not there yet

Prediction: TVs and PCs are same
Reality: You can go on your PC with your TV monitor to watch TV on the internet!

Prediction: Standalone (consoles?) and PCs are the same
Reality: On PS3 you can install linux!

Prediction: Multiple soundtracks for each movie on a disc
Reality: If you count multiple tracks like PCM, DTS, etc then yes

Prediction: We'll have a connection to download 1 GB/min
Reality: I can download 1/3 of a GB/min on a high end FiOS connection

Prediction: MS begins new secret KI (AI?) based OS
Reality: I have no idea what you were trying to say. Please speak into the microphone louder.

Prediction: Dukenukem4 will be released
Reality: "When it's ready."

Prediction: I win the lottery?
Reality: Nope. You're still poor.
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Old 30th October 2008, 17:45   #30  |  Link
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sagekilla View Post
Prediction: Dukenukem4 will be released
Reality: "When it's ready."
When its done...

But at least there was a new trailer and some game-play video recently! :]


Quote:
Originally Posted by Sagekilla View Post
Prediction: I win the lottery?
Reality: Nope. You're still poor.
Unfortunately you are almost right...

I earn some more money now, but Ive never won more than 1k in the lottery! :[


Ps: Looking at my old posts, I'm kinda ashamed and shocked by my WTF!!!??? writing style XD
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Old 30th October 2008, 19:20   #31  |  Link
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My predicitions? Flash memory will be as cheap/cheaper then a DVD disk per memory, so people will prefer to rip their DVDs to a flash drive rather then burning it onto a DVD.

DVD Players will finally get a usb port so flash drives can be plugged into them.

Big media companies will consider using flash media with a special super secrete handshake, DNA sampling, Iris reading, nose picking security measure. It will be broken 1 week before it is released (Actually if they did something like this, it might not be broken )
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Old 30th October 2008, 20:35   #32  |  Link
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sagekilla View Post
Prediction: We'll have a connection to download 1 GB/min
Reality: Some people in Sweden have (uncapped) Gbit connections which gives a maximal download speed of around 7.5 GB/min.
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Old 30th October 2008, 21:01   #33  |  Link
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tph View Post
Reality: Some people in Sweden have (uncapped) Gbit connections which gives a maximal download speed of around 7.5 GB/min.
I guess this works only, because there are not that much people (per square kilometre) in Sweden
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Old 30th October 2008, 23:19   #34  |  Link
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Better than h.264 compression algorithim will come....

I anticipate a better compression algorithm will come out. Something that doesn’t use Motion Predication/Estimation… The speed of multi-core CPU will make such an algorithm applicable in real….
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Old 31st October 2008, 01:19   #35  |  Link
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So how do you plan to improve compression by not exploiting temporal redundancy with spatial locality, any formulation of which is equivalent to motion?
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Old 31st October 2008, 04:16   #36  |  Link
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@zeeman_88, unless you plan on creating extremely complex and powerful AI that can recreate real life imagery based on a description given to it, I doubt it. Even that is decades, if not centuries, away, if it weren't for the impossibilities that such a situation presents.
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Old 31st October 2008, 05:01   #37  |  Link
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeytown2 View Post
Prediction: A player that allows me to play movies faster by an arbitrary percentage.
Outcome: ReClock DirectShow Filter can do this
PSP has this built in
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Old 31st October 2008, 15:21   #38  |  Link
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Sagekilla, akupenguin…

In my humble opinion, the current motion estimation algorithm of using trial and error till findings the “best” motion vectors is not that efficient!

There should be a better mathematical way to find those, or at least there should be a better way to de-correlate the redundant information across successive frames.

One way to do that is the 3D de-correlation transform… And may be there will be better way to do that.

Right know the “image” and “audio” compression algorithms are more sophisticated than video algorithm. Basically video compression algorithms are still the same since the days of mpeg1.

For example, JPEG2000 and JPEG use total different algorithm and we need something like JPEG2000 for video…
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Old 31st October 2008, 15:31   #39  |  Link
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Quote:
For example, JPEG2000 and JPEG use total different algorithm and we need something like JPEG2000 for video…
JPEG2000 uses Wavelet compression. There are video formats that use Wavelets, such as Dirac and Snow, but they did not prove to be superior to H.264 yet. Maybe they never will...


Also you must ask: Do we really need more efficient video compression than what we've got today?

Discs are becoming bigger and bigger, bandwidth is becoming cheaper and cheaper. Also I'm not sure if we will ever need much higher resolutions than "Full HD", simply because you can't integrate even bigger screens into your living room. Not everybody can have a separate room for TV and Beamer. Also look what happens to audio compression: Now that the HDD's and Flash's in mobile audio players become bigger and bigger, people go away from MP3&Co and go back to uncompresses Wave or FLAC...
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Last edited by LoRd_MuldeR; 31st October 2008 at 15:39.
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Old 31st October 2008, 16:04   #40  |  Link
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When I mentioned JPEG2000 to JPEG, I meant JPEG2000 standard brought a total new algorithm to image compression that de-correlate the whole image and not just 16x16 blocks.
I would like to see some new algorithm for motion estimation (any new algorithm not wavelet), since the current method explores all the possible redundancy in a video sequence.

IMHO, although, we don’t need better compression algorithm storage wise, hard discs are very cheap now, I think we still need them bandwidth wise “Internet, mobile and military and other civilian applications”.
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