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Old 14th September 2003, 19:01   #1  |  Link
temporance
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in five years' time...

So let's try to guess where the world of codecs, containers and amateur PC video will be in five years time.

DVDs will be so cheap that Blockbuster will be struggling to stay afloat. CDs also, but most people will not be buying their music in a physical format by then. Movies will be available cheaply online - but I'm not sure of the format. It will be possible to order VoD movies to a clever set-top-box with a hard drive and DSL/cable-modem connection. So perhaps the format will be the one with the most hardware support (looks like this will be MPEG-4). Your set-top box will also download movies that it thinks you might like to watch (and it will do this via p2p networks, although you might still have to pay to activate the DRM.

So, I reckon MPEG-4 (DivX,xvid) will still be going strong. Chipsets and videocards supporting H.264 will becoming standard (and these will support all formats up to HDTV). But encoding H.264 at home will still be slower and not much better quality than xvid API9. Oh yes and open-source project hdot264 will have reached version 1.0

There will have been one or two huge lawsuits, probably involving Microsoft... this might kill a standard or two.

So, my guess doesn't give much away... but i'd love to hear yours

Last edited by temporance; 14th September 2003 at 19:58.
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Old 14th September 2003, 19:11   #2  |  Link
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People will finally stick to one standard for A/V... there will be no more confusion around the DVD format...

Yeah yeah, keep dreaming Sly...

But more seriously... DVD players will support Matroska, whatever the video or audio will be encoded to.

We'll have access to legally downloadable movies for couple $$.. with best quality available.

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Old 14th September 2003, 19:13   #3  |  Link
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No, no, no.
It'll be like this:
1) Windows Media Video 11/12 (partially based on h264) will rule the world.
2) DRM will be cracked and we all will have optical cables, which will allow us to get new movies in about 5 mins or so.
3) No one will care about software piracy

The future looks pretty bright to me
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Old 14th September 2003, 20:10   #4  |  Link
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Someone will make a player that allows me to play movies faster by an arbitrary percentage (~20%) with pitch correction on the sound.

DVD burners will finally be able to burn 9 gb discs.

h.264 will not be adopted in hardware players yet.
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Old 14th September 2003, 23:41   #5  |  Link
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I believe the price of CD's may be rising a little in 5 years as the price of DVD's have dropped drastically making less demand for CD's with a following drop in production. Somewhere along the line, a standard favorite format for DVD R's will exist (+/-).

I think Microsoft will still be a big name in video compression just due to the sheer amount of money they can dump into development (and litigation against competition).

Divx will also be a household name as they are commercial and will be developing more and more hardware players. Their codec should be good too but I think somewhere along the way there will no longer be a 'free' version, hence Xvid and others will surpass them in this area.

I think there will be a container similar to Mostroska but for commercial use that one would have to pay for initially and would self destruct after so many uses (but the programmers of the world will already have hacked the destruction mode, as this is what happens when one tries to corner the market).

For the do-it-yourselfers there will still be developments in h.264, realmedia, Xvid, perhaps Divx, and probably a couple of new compression formats as well as containers (hopefully there will be something so innovative that it will breath new life into the mix).
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Old 15th September 2003, 00:34   #6  |  Link
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The US will be renamed Disneyland and the US military turned into a copyright enforcement police force. Devices capable of playing A/V will be illegal to operate without a network connect, and they will all have mandatory blackboxes which will legally allow the incorporated government to observe anything you do on them at any given time to make sure you arent infringing copyrights. Production of media without Hollywood supplied encryption and watermarking will be illegal, we will watch low quality mpeg-1 movies and like it.
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Old 15th September 2003, 00:57   #7  |  Link
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Quote:
Originally posted by TheXung

DVD burners will finally be able to burn 9 gb discs.
DVDs and CDs will be sold only on eBay as curios as Blu-ray drives take over the market. 27G on a 12 cm disc and 1G on a 3cm disc.

The MPAA and RIAA finally go bankrupt and people throw a week-long party.
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Old 15th September 2003, 01:38   #8  |  Link
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We had better be encoding at hi def resolutions in 5 years time.
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Old 15th September 2003, 10:50   #9  |  Link
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Quote:
Originally posted by TheXung
Someone will make a player that allows me to play movies faster by an arbitrary percentage (~20%) with pitch correction on the sound.
*COUGH* Intervideo Timestretch DMO *COUGH*
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Old 15th September 2003, 17:19   #10  |  Link
General Lee D. Mented
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DVDs will be cheap and auto-destructing (see disney's latest move). Blockbuster will be hurting due to lost revenue from overdue movies, as they now don't need to be returned, ever. They just oxidize in 7 days. To compensate they'll try and affiliate with large chains like walmart and 7-11 to do point of sale disposable rentals. Netflix will be the main competitor, and doing better as they now no longer need to pay return postage on destructable DVDs.

H.264 set top boxes will be being discussed by industry magazines, with maybe one or two expensive ones actually available on the market. The content base will be nonexistant because 99.99% of the public believes "DVD is good enough." There will be discussion of upcoming blu-ray disc HD players that use H.264 as their native format due in 2 years (7 years from now).

In the DVD "backup" (snicker) scene, MPEG and derivatives will have been crushed by advanced supertemporal wavelet codecs and adaptive codecs. $1 256MB solid state MRAM cards will be the portability medium of choice for video, which people like to watch on PDAs and laptops on the go (if you're at home, why not just burn the damn dvd without reencode and watch it on tv?). DVD burners software will have heavy copy-protection circumvention features, much like CDR software does now. This will be useful for people who just brought home a stack of $2 self destructing rental DVDs and want to "back them up in case the layer oxidizes before my legal rental window expires." The "We have too much free time" scene will be hacking ways to get movies to play on portable game systems, popularized by sony's playstation portable.

Software app development will have moved on to editors, and new apps that not only encode but peform functions equivalent to Premiere and in some cases beyond will be in various stages of completion.


Filesharing apps will be smarter and still rampant. Various security measures will be integrated (see earthstation 5) to provide anonymous downloading. Cable modem providers will be losing customers to DSL as they block more ports and throttle more bandwidth, aggrivating users. DSL providers that are hurting now will be gaining customer base by advertising openness of access and "Guaranteed bandwidth that's never capped."

mf will have a girlfriend, who may or may not be an actual biological girl. :P
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Old 15th September 2003, 17:58   #11  |  Link
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where was digital video in 1998 ?

i did not research it and cannot remember very well as i only started encoding in 2001.
But i think mpeg-1 and -2 existed but mpeg-2 was near-to-not-used (PCs too slow, no codec available) and first DVDs were hitting the market, mpeg-4 was nowhere to be seen. Real Networks was really strong in both audio and video, especially when streamed. Indeo was widely used as mpeg(-1) alternative.

Deriving from this, i don't think the competitors will still be the same - but sure the names will remain known, only this forum will be discussing codecs we don't know the names of by now.

People will look at Mpeg-4 (incl. AVC) as we do now at mpeg-2, a solid, boring industry standard. CDs will be about to vanish as its much cheaper to fill a DVD by only 15%. People argue wether blue-ray can defeat the cheap double layer recordable DVDs - hey, hardware evolves not THAT fast . DVD-Video often use Mpeg-4 container, all codecs can encode HighDefinition resolutions without problems and 50/60 fps is often used for end products. My bet on next industry standard goes to AVC/AAC (uh, cheap bet in Mpeg-4 with many players recognising matroska with identical content as well.
[add]Fast networks will make the average user swap movies like mp3s today - playing a 2 or 4 mbit/s movie from a remote drive is the same as from a local drive - making the drive bus the limiting factor in p2p if several people want to watch off your drive[/add]

(People here are coding a replacement for the outdated matroska container which is the only reamaining non-DRMed container :P and i'll be tired of trying out new video tricks and never rip a DVD again - i hope not)
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Last edited by unmei; 15th September 2003 at 18:05.
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Old 16th September 2003, 01:51   #12  |  Link
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9/4/2003: You can get the Sony BW-F101 Blu-ray writer from Japan (will be in the US soon) if you got the money - about $3000. Stores 23G on a single disc - at about $45 a pop.

Philips also makes blu-ray drives. Given the rapid evolution of CDs and DVDs, why are people so skeptical of blu-rays? What makes them any different? They are available NOW, so in five years, they will be the dominant format. CDs will be dead and buried, and DVDs will be like CDs are right now - on the cusp of being obsolete and phased out.

It's the one negative of the computer market: the technology advances so fast, equipment becomes obsolete almost overnight. That doesn't mean unusable, it just means it won't be mainstream and it will be increasingly difficult to find supplies and parts. Just TRY to get 5.25" Mini-Floppies these days. It's hard enough to get 3.25" Micro-Floppies.

In five years, CDRs will be hard to find and expensive. DVDRs will be dirt cheap and everywhere, and Blu-rays will be moderate priced and increasingly dominant. The talk will all be on UV-rays... will they hit a TB per disc? We'll all wait with baited breath...
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Old 16th September 2003, 14:33   #13  |  Link
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CDs have been around since the 1980s.

It's not technological superiority it's market penetration. Given how people seem to be buying into DVDs, it's unlikey that Blu-ray discs will take off quickly unless they are significanly better. And having Blu-ray discs availble in Japan at $45 a pop does not make them available *now*

If anything will kill CDs, it's that their primary storage ability - audio - seems to be shifting to online distribution.

I *do* predict that by 2020, Donald Graft will have produced a plugin that can make a Hollywood blockbuster out of random white noise, using field matching.
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Old 16th September 2003, 15:38   #14  |  Link
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Quote:
It's not technological superiority it's market penetration. Given how people seem to be buying into DVDs, it's unlikey that Blu-ray discs will take off quickly unless they are significanly better. And having Blu-ray discs availble in Japan at $45 a pop does not make them available *now*
In five years time there may or not be HD/DVD's plentifully for sale. Hollywood really can't make up its mind about this. But many more of us will be doing HD capture off the airwaves and other places, encoding HD movies at 720 lines or better. And the debate will probably shift towards whether a 1 DVD HD rip is a quality worth watching.

Blank DVD-R's will probably cost about 25 cents or less.

- Tom
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Old 16th September 2003, 17:23   #15  |  Link
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Quote:
And the debate will probably shift towards whether a 1 DVD HD rip is a quality worth watching.


And dont forget to consider if you downmix your 12.1 soundtrack to 5.1...

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Old 16th September 2003, 18:06   #16  |  Link
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And dont forget to consider if you downmix your 12.1 soundtrack to 5.1...
hmm i wonder if i'm still using headphones by then.. i have never encoded 5.1 so far cos i always watch my movies with headphones - that way i can watch them at 4am in full volume in my lil flat
..given i will own my own villa till then i might start to use "surround", but so far..
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Old 18th September 2003, 00:13   #17  |  Link
General Lee D. Mented
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Quote:
Originally posted by unmei
hmm i wonder if i'm still using headphones by then.. i have never encoded 5.1 so far cos i always watch my movies with headphones - that way i can watch them at 4am in full volume in my lil flat
..given i will own my own villa till then i might start to use "surround", but so far..
Why not just get the same thing I plan on getting?

http://shop.store.yahoo.com/guybuys/mdr-ds8000.html

Surround headphones! :P
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Old 18th September 2003, 09:13   #18  |  Link
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Originally posted by General Lee D. Mented
Why not just get the same thing I plan on getting?

http://shop.store.yahoo.com/guybuys/mdr-ds8000.html

Surround headphones! :P
Hot damn! Pardon my french.
I been lookin' for sumthin' like this recently!
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Old 23rd September 2003, 09:31   #19  |  Link
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This is what really happens in 5 years!

Note: The document provided here is purely SCI-FI and the names provided may be purely coincidental . The author has no intention to cause humiliation to purely coincidental names used here.

Finally time will come when Bill * releases Microsoft Linux 2010Ex Advanced Professional Edition (quiet early in first quarter 2008).In which u have MS Linux Media Player 10-U can directly watch movies by simply typing the movie name and LMP 10 will fetch it for u from MS servers in seconds.(Not free - single $ maybe).By this release M$ tries to bring monopoly in all of the Computer Literate people out there(includes me!).The new codec coming with this OS will be called OVC (open video codec)and OAC(Audio).The hardware encoders may have been built in with Mother Board supplied by M$. With a single click on the existing file u are asked to confirm the transcoding. The codecs may be developed by the open source world and finally M$ has bought it for Millions of$.The codec will be loseless ones and u can wait for the open source to build another lossy one. Every individual will be having this lossless codec in their mobile phones, PDAs etc……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………and story continues…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………blah………….blah………………

The End
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Old 23rd September 2003, 18:40   #20  |  Link
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ooh! i love threads like this... we can archive them and check how wrong we were in 5 years time.

- quantum computing logic components will have been developed, but no hardware will exist because computer scientists just can't find enough alcohol to allow them to think with an extra dimension.

- EMI will face a backlash from angry fans for making their CDs sound no better than the mp3s they tried to stop (hope this happens sooner - i've found that burning a copy of a CopyControlled disc actually sounds much better than the original, if you do it right
)

- the internet will be pay-per-click, even on p2p networks (it's going this way...)

- George W Bush will be justifying his last war on New Zealand, saying that the weapons must've been moved out during their 48 hour deadline before attacking. The US army will find a chemical weapons plant cleverly hidden in an otherwise ordinary looking sheep. the US will also have an active nuclear weapons program (this at least is true - check google).

- we'll have USB keys (or similar) with 40 gigs of space, at about $100 a pop (AUD).

- by the time i finally get enough money together to buy a DV camera, we'll all be over it and onto HDTV.

- portishead will finally release their new album (hmm... is 5 years enough?)


doom and gloom! hooray! the portishead album will make it all worth it though.
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