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It's not technological superiority it's market penetration. Given how people seem to be buying into DVDs, it's unlikey that Blu-ray discs will take off quickly unless they are significanly better. And having Blu-ray discs availble in Japan at $45 a pop does not make them available *now*
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In five years time there may or not be HD/DVD's plentifully for sale. Hollywood really can't make up its mind about this. But many more of us will be doing HD capture off the airwaves and other places, encoding HD movies at 720 lines or better. And the debate will probably shift towards whether a 1 DVD HD rip is a quality worth watching.
Blank DVD-R's will probably cost about 25 cents or less.
- Tom