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Old 15th September 2003, 17:58   #11  |  Link
unmei
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: ch-2500
Posts: 891
where was digital video in 1998 ?

i did not research it and cannot remember very well as i only started encoding in 2001.
But i think mpeg-1 and -2 existed but mpeg-2 was near-to-not-used (PCs too slow, no codec available) and first DVDs were hitting the market, mpeg-4 was nowhere to be seen. Real Networks was really strong in both audio and video, especially when streamed. Indeo was widely used as mpeg(-1) alternative.

Deriving from this, i don't think the competitors will still be the same - but sure the names will remain known, only this forum will be discussing codecs we don't know the names of by now.

People will look at Mpeg-4 (incl. AVC) as we do now at mpeg-2, a solid, boring industry standard. CDs will be about to vanish as its much cheaper to fill a DVD by only 15%. People argue wether blue-ray can defeat the cheap double layer recordable DVDs - hey, hardware evolves not THAT fast . DVD-Video often use Mpeg-4 container, all codecs can encode HighDefinition resolutions without problems and 50/60 fps is often used for end products. My bet on next industry standard goes to AVC/AAC (uh, cheap bet in Mpeg-4 with many players recognising matroska with identical content as well.
[add]Fast networks will make the average user swap movies like mp3s today - playing a 2 or 4 mbit/s movie from a remote drive is the same as from a local drive - making the drive bus the limiting factor in p2p if several people want to watch off your drive[/add]

(People here are coding a replacement for the outdated matroska container which is the only reamaining non-DRMed container :P and i'll be tired of trying out new video tricks and never rip a DVD again - i hope not)
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Last edited by unmei; 15th September 2003 at 18:05.
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