Still no better idea than the simple old threshold thing? - Looking at only the difference the difference between N-1 and N1 is moot (high motion etc.). Go second order. Build diff between N-1 and N, then look at how that diff is changing. The method has been there since years in SCSelect(), part of RemoveDirt.dll. It's not perfect either, of course, but much more robust than simple thresholding.
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