yep if people don't move away from MPEG no chance, though those who tried in the past weren't really successful either and completely vanished or adapted
The People working on Daala tough know exactly what MPEG is and how to use their principles and modify them so that they wont be the same on paper even 10 bit as 10 bit is a principle that's hardly patentable so Toshiba could say nothing against a different way of implementation
Google on the other side has so much power they could really pull it of buying ON2 was the first step but building up on the same principals is wrong doing research is the right way pushing VP9 in a complete different direction if Google can't do it i really wonder how Xiph could even if i have the biggest respect for those working behind Daala, though maybe not having this power @ all in the end is going to succeed
Though the last i know of who tried to knock out of MPEG where DivX and where are they today, their last rescue in the end was to adapt and being a good implementer i mean i highly credit it to Gej even thinking of creating something unique (their is this rumor of DivX own Codec Research in the early days) after steal eh borrow MPEGs work but in the end he landed exactly their just implementing (though just implementing is maybe to low credited he made it into Hollywood's circles being the provider for their next Digital Push, though not with their Video Research but DRM Research)
Though a Video Codec isn't the same complexity as a Browser it's far far higher even a very good high paid team just implementing is happy with small gains in month it's not like creating a browser @ version 1 and being @ version 18 in some years
Thus i also have big respects for Guys like Jarret ,Loren, Neiromaster Picard and Schweinsz
And moving away from implementing to create something new is always a great evolution for such guys and i applaud them for trying it
Neiromaster and Schweinsz would be for sure a great addition to Daala
The Most exciting was to see what the BBC have came up with with Dirac and of course Niedermayer with Snow in the last 10 years man that was impressive