I agree to an extent but I don't think the addressable market will be anywhere as big as with MPEG-2 or AVC. Only green-field deployments and 4K are going to use it for DTH broadcasting, though a few European governments are mandating it.
Only web (including mobile) are going to be big consumers of HEVC and arguably the web doesn't have serious video bandwidth restrictions anyway. ARPU for web video is very low anyway.
HEVC won't bring 10-bit mainstream. There's a huge push against it from hardware manufacturers.
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HEVC royalties could be 10x as much as H.264 and would still be a huge net payoff just from bandwidth and storage savings.
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This is definitely not the case for operator-loaned STBs.